Is Wave Season Actually Cheaper? Not for Most Cruise Lines.
We compared 2.6 million cruise price snapshots across 9 lines and 75+ ships — Wave Season versus every other month. The median fare during Wave Season is $167 per person per night. Outside Wave Season, it's $158.
Wave Season prices are 5.7% higher, not lower.
That doesn't mean Wave Season is worthless. But the story the cruise industry sells — that January through March is when you get the best prices — doesn't hold up when you look at the actual numbers.
What Wave Season Actually Is (and Isn't)
Wave Season runs January through March. It's the cruise industry's biggest annual marketing push — think Super Bowl for cruise advertising. Every line launches promotions: onboard credits, free drink packages, cabin upgrades, reduced deposits.
The marketing is real. The perks are real. But "promotion" and "lower price" are two different things.
What Wave Season actually does is drive booking volume. Cruise lines want to fill summer and fall inventory early, so they run aggressive campaigns to get people to commit. The promotions are designed to create urgency, not necessarily to lower the base fare.
Our data covers October 2025 through February 2026 — a window that includes pre-Wave Season, the full holiday booking cycle, and the first six weeks of Wave Season 2026. That gives us a direct comparison between the same ships, the same cabin types, the same sources — just different calendar periods.
The Overall Numbers
Here's the aggregate comparison across all 9 cruise lines and all cabin types.
| Metric | Wave Season (Jan-Mar) | Non-Wave (Oct-Dec) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median PPPN | $167 | $158 | +5.7% |
| Average PPPN | $210.27 | $190.83 | +10.2% |
| 25th Percentile | $124 | $116 | +6.9% |
| 75th Percentile | $237 | $221 | +7.2% |
| Total Snapshots | 1.2M | 1.4M | — |
Every price tier is higher during Wave Season. The floor is higher. The ceiling is higher. The midpoint is higher. The gap is consistent whether you're looking at budget or premium fares — roughly 6-7% more expensive across the board.
The average is pulled up more than the median (+10.2% vs +5.7%), which tells us Wave Season has more high-priced outliers. Premium and luxury sailings see bigger Wave Season markups than mainstream fares.
How It Breaks Down by Cabin Type
The Wave Season premium isn't uniform across cabins. Some categories get hit harder than others.
| Cabin Type | Wave Season Median | Non-Wave Median | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inside | $141 | $129 | +9.3% |
| Oceanview | $167 | $145 | +15.2% |
| Balcony | $191 | $169 | +13.0% |
| Suite | $311 | $317 | -1.9% |
Oceanview cabins show the biggest Wave Season markup at 15.2%. Balconies follow at 13%. Inside cabins — the budget option — still run 9.3% higher.
The one exception: suites. Suite median prices are actually 1.9% lower during Wave Season. This makes sense — suites are high-margin inventory that cruise lines are willing to discount to fill, especially when they're running promotions with bundled perks. If you're a suite buyer, Wave Season may actually work in your favor.
For everyone else, the data is clear. You're paying more for the same cabin during Wave Season than you would outside of it.
Which Lines Actually Discount During Wave Season
This is where the story gets interesting. The aggregate numbers hide real differences between cruise lines.
| Cruise Line | Non-Wave Avg | Wave Season Avg | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSC | $164.79 | $155.09 | -5.9% |
| Carnival | $149.28 | $143.72 | -3.7% |
| Virgin | $265.11 | $260.52 | -1.7% |
| Disney | $526.73 | $526.45 | -0.1% |
| Princess | $171.36 | $172.17 | +0.5% |
| Royal Caribbean | $213.76 | $222.90 | +4.3% |
| Norwegian | $190.34 | $203.83 | +7.1% |
| Celebrity | $224.82 | $293.06 | +30.4% |
Only two lines consistently price lower during Wave Season: MSC (-5.9%) and Carnival (-3.7%). These are the volume lines — the ones most dependent on filling large ships with mainstream fares. Their Wave Season discounts are real, measurable, and consistent.
Virgin and Disney are essentially flat. Disney barely moves regardless of season — demand carries the price. Virgin, with just 4 ships, has less inventory pressure.
Royal Caribbean and Norwegian price higher during Wave Season. RC runs 4.3% higher; Norwegian 7.1% higher. Both lines lean heavily into bundled promotions (Free at Sea, drink packages) rather than cutting the base fare. The sticker price goes up while the perceived value increases through add-ons.
Celebrity is the outlier at +30.4%. That's not a typo. Celebrity's average fare jumps from $224.82 to $293.06 during Wave Season. Part of this reflects the mix of sailings available (more premium itineraries), but the magnitude is striking. Celebrity is the most aggressive discounter on a week-to-week basis, but their Wave Season base prices start from a much higher point.
Deal Volume Tells a Different Story
If Wave Season prices are higher, why does everyone think it's the best time to book? Because of volume.
| Metric | Wave Season | Non-Wave | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Scored Deals | 32,268 | 4,278 | 7.5x |
| Deals Scoring 75+ | 741 | 428 | 1.7x |
| Deals Scoring 90+ | 38 | 97 | 0.4x |
| Average Deal Score | 48.9 | 45.8 | — |
Wave Season produces 7.5x more total scored deals. That's partly because we're tracking more inventory during this period, but it also reflects the reality that cruise lines are actively pushing prices into deal territory more often.
The average deal score during Wave Season (48.9) is slightly higher than non-Wave (45.8). But look at the top tier: deals scoring 90+ are actually more common outside Wave Season. Non-Wave months produced 97 elite deals versus just 38 during Wave Season.
Translation: Wave Season gives you more options. It does not give you better options. The highest-scoring deals — the ones that represent genuinely exceptional value against a ship's own pricing history — appear more reliably outside the promotional window.
What You're Actually Buying During Wave Season
The Real Wave Season Equation
What Wave Season actually offers:
- More selection. 7.5x more deals means more ships, dates, and cabin types available at scored prices.
- Bundled perks. Drink packages, Wi-Fi credits, onboard spending money, cabin upgrades — these are real and often worth $50-100/person/day.
- Lower deposits. Reduced deposit requirements make it easier to lock in early and reprice later if fares drop.
- Higher base fares. The per-night price itself is 5.7% higher at the median. On a 7-night cruise for two, that's roughly $160 more before perks.
The math works differently depending on what you value. If you're booking a Royal Caribbean balcony and the Wave Season promotion includes a $200 drink package per person, that $400 in perks easily offsets a 4.3% fare increase. The deal is real — it's just not where you think it is.
The mistake is focusing on the fare and ignoring the bundle. Wave Season's value proposition is the total package, not the sticker price. If you only compare nightly rates, you'll conclude Wave Season is a bad deal. If you factor in the perks, some lines deliver genuine value.
But the industry doesn't frame it that way. They say "Wave Season deals" and show you a fare, implying the price itself is special. It usually isn't.
When Prices Actually Drop
If not during Wave Season, then when? Our price anomaly data for this period tells the story.
During Wave Season 2026, we detected 17,500 price drops and 20,171 price spikes. Prices go up slightly more often than they go down — which makes sense during a period when demand is being actively stimulated.
The average drop during Wave Season is 16.5%. That's meaningful. But the average spike is 23.6%. The net effect of Wave Season pricing activity tilts toward increases, not decreases.
Price drops don't follow a calendar. They follow inventory. When a ship isn't filling at the rate the revenue management system expects, the price comes down — regardless of whether it's January or September. We tracked this pattern in detail in our analysis of when cruise prices actually drop.
A Smarter Approach to Wave Season
The data doesn't say "skip Wave Season." It says "understand what you're actually getting."
If you're booking Carnival or MSC, Wave Season delivers real fare reductions of 4-6% on top of any bundled perks. These are the two lines where the traditional "Wave Season = cheaper" advice actually holds.
If you're booking Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, or Celebrity, the base fare will be higher. Evaluate the bundled perks independently — if a drink package is worth $100/day to you and the fare is only $10/night higher, the math works. But know you're paying more for the room.
If you're booking Disney or Virgin, Wave Season is largely irrelevant to pricing. These lines price based on demand, not promotional calendars.
Regardless of line, tracking prices on a specific sailing over time will always beat waiting for a promotional window. A ship that's struggling to fill a particular departure date in August will drop its price in any month — not just during Wave Season. For a data-backed look at optimal booking timing, see our best time to book a cruise analysis.
Cruise Radar scores every fare 0-100 based on 2.6M+ price snapshots, then shows you the score right on the booking page — so you know whether a Wave Season "deal" is actually good before you book.
The Bottom Line
Wave Season is a marketing event, not a pricing event. The promotions are real, the perks are valuable, and the selection is unmatched. But the base fares are higher — 5.7% higher at the median across all lines.
Two lines deliver genuine Wave Season discounts: Carnival and MSC. Everyone else either holds flat or charges more. The best deals by score — the 90+ rated fares that represent genuinely exceptional value — appear more often outside Wave Season.
The smart play isn't avoiding Wave Season or rushing to book during it. It's knowing what a fair price looks like for the specific ship and sailing you want, regardless of what the calendar says.
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About the Author
Graham H — Founder, All Aboard Deals
Graham has been cruising for over a decade and has sailed on 15+ cruises across Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Norwegian, and Virgin.
He built All Aboard Deals to track cruise prices the same way traders track charts — monitoring 35,000+ sailings and spotting fares that fall well below their recent averages.
When he's not digging through price drops, he's on board testing cabins, checking drink packages, and talking with other cruisers about what actually feels like a good value.
Editorial Standards
All guides are based on real pricing data, live fare checks, and historical trends. Content is updated as ships launch and prices change. Questions or corrections? Contact us